Asia:

China’s factory activity fell to its fastest pace in two years in March, a private sector PMI showed. The results were consistent with official data on Thursday, which showed activity in Chinese manufacturing and services for the first time since the country’s Kovid-19 outbreak in 2020.

India’s current account deficit has widened to three months since December, mainly due to high trade deficits, the central bank of India – the Reserve Bank of India said. India’s current account deficit (CAD) stood at $ 23 billion or 2.8% of GDP in the third quarter of FY 2021/22, compared to a deficit of $ 2.2 billion or 0.3% of GDP in the previous year. Remittances to private transfers, mainly foreign Indians, grew 13.1% year-on-year, with net foreign direct investment showing a flow of $ 5.1 billion, down from $ 17.4 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. The country’s balance of payments stood at a modest surplus of $ 0.5 billion in the third quarter of the fiscal year, up from $ 32.5 billion a year earlier.

South Korean factory activity has slowed since July 2020, with new export orders posting sharp declines, as companies suffered losses due to rising input prices for products ranging from oil and metals to semiconductors. Factory activity in Taiwan and Vietnam has also slowed and shrunk in Malaysia, as the region has felt pain due to rising raw material prices, other PMIs released on Friday showed.

Major Asian stock markets had mixed days today:

  • NIKKEI 225 fell 155.45 points, or -0.56%, to 27,665.98
  • Shanghai rose 30.51 points, or 0.94%, to 3,282.72
  • Hang Seng rose 42.70 points, or 0.19%, to 22.039.55
  • The ASX 200 fell 5.80 points, or -0.08%, to 7,493.80
  • Kospi fell 17.80 points, or -0.65%, to 2,739.85
  • The Sensex gained 708.18 points, or 1.21%, to 59,276.69
  • The Nifty 50 rose 205.70 points, or 1.18%, to 17,670.45

Major Asian currency markets had mixed days today:

  • AUDUSD rose 0.00000 or 0.00% to 0.74933
  • NZDUSD fell 0.00190 or -0.27% to 0.69109
  • USDJPY rose 0.858 or 0.70% to 122.690
  • USDCNY rose 0.01450 or 0.23% to 6.36926

Precious Metals:

  • Gold down 10.35 USD / t oz. Or -0.53% to 1,926.88
  • Silver lost 0.008 USD / t. oz or -0.03% to 24.764

Some economic news from last night:

China:

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar) has come down from 50.4 to 48.1

Japan:

Manufacturing PMI (March) rose from 52.7 to 54.1

Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q1) fell to 2.2% from 9.3%

Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX (Q1) fell from 5.1% to -11.4%

Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q1) down 13 to 9

The Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) fell from 17 to 14

Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q1) down 9 to 7

Tankan large non-manufacturing index (Q1) decreased from 10 to 9

South Korea:

Exports (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 20.6% to 18.2%

Imports (YoY) (Mar) increased from 25.2% to 27.9%

Trade balance (March) decreased from 0.83B to -0.14B ৷

The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Mar) fell to 51.2 from 53.8

Australia:

Home loan (MoM) decreased from 1.0% to -4.7%

Invest Housing Finance (MoM) fell to -1.8% from 6.1%

The AIG Manufacturing Index (Mar) rose from 53.2 to 55.7

The manufacturing PMI rose to 57.7 from 57.0

Today’s economic news

India:

Exports (USD) increased from 34.57B to 40.38B

Imports (USD) increased from 55.45B to 59.07B

Trade balance increased from -20.88B to -18.69B

FX reserves decreased from USD 619.68B to 617.65B

Australia:

Commodity prices (YoY) increased from 16.7% to 40.9%

EUROPE / EMEA:

Russia’s aggression in Ukraine on Friday slowed global factory activity in March due to supply chain disruptions, declining demand and declining confidence, according to a survey on Friday. The uncertainty caused by the aggression, coupled with the sharp cost of living, suggests that the eurozone manufacturing industry could go into recession this quarter.

The S&P Global Final Product Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Eurozone fell to a 14-month low of 56.5 in February from 58.2 in March, below the initial “flash” estimate of 57.0 but still above the 50 mark which separates growth. Growth and factory activity are expected to be much more pessimistic, and French production growth is slightly lower than forecast. Confidence indicators in the region have declined and the eurozone’s future output PMI has fallen to its lowest level since May 2020.

Europe’s major stock markets had a green day:

  • The CAC 40 rose 24.44 points, or 0.37%, to 6,684.31
  • The FTSE 100 rose 22.22 points, or 0.30%, to 7,537.90
  • The DAX 30 rose 31.73 points, or 0.22%, to 14,446.48

Europe’s major currency markets had mixed days today:

  • EURUSD fell 0.00290 or -0.26% to 1.10420
  • GBPUSD fell 0.00380 or -0.29% to 1.31080
  • USDCHF rose 0.00230 or 0.25% to 0.92625

Today’s economic news from Europe:

Switzerland:

PI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 2.2% to 2.4%

CPI (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 0.7% to 0.6%

procure.ch PMI (Mar) has risen from 62.6 to 64.0

France:

The French manufacturing PMI (March) fell to 54.7 from 54.8

The French government’s budget balance (February) fell from -15.9B to -37.6B.

Spain:

The Spanish manufacturing PMI (March) fell to 54.2 from 56.9

Italy:

The Italian manufacturing PMI (March) fell to 58.8 from 58.3

Italian trade balance increased from -4.17B to -1.55B in non-EU (February)

Germany:

The German manufacturing PMI (March) fell to 57.9 from 56.6

United Kingdom:

Manufacturing PMI (March) declined from 58.0 to 55.2

Eurozone:

Manufacturing PMI (March) fell to 58.5 from 56.2

Basic CPI (MoM) increased from 0.9% to 2.5%

Basic CPI (YoY) increased from 2.7% to 3.0%

CPI (MoM) increased from 0.9% to 2.5%

CPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 5.9% to 7.5%

CPI, nsa (Mar) increased from 111.74 to 114.50

HICP Ex Energy and Food (YoY) (Mar) has increased from 2.9% to 3.2%

HICP Ex Energy and Food (MoM) increased from 0.6% to 1.1%

US / Americas:

Unemployment in the United States has dropped to 3.6%, according to the Department of Labor’s highly anticipated report. Non-farm payrolls rose to 431,000 in March, below expectations of 490,000, but still presented a signal for a stronger workforce. Naturally, the leisure and hospitality sector has seen the most significant improvement since attracting more than 112,000 new employees but remains eroded from pre-COVID standards. Professional and business services advanced by 102,000, with an increase in seasonal accounting work for 18,000 positions.

The House of Representatives voted 220-204 this Friday to legalize cannabis. The Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Exploitation (More) Act would make marijuana criminal at the federal level and allow farmers to cultivate marijuana and traders to sell it to consumers as a taxable product. Taxes will start at 5% before an 8% increase. However, the bill was passed last year but could not be passed in the Senate.

Press Secretary Jane Sackie has announced plans to leave the White House this Friday to pursue a career in broadcasting. Saki

US market closed:

  • The Dow is up 139.92 points, or 0.4%, at 34,818.27
  • The S&P 500 rose 15.45 points, or 0.34%, to 4,545.86
  • The Nasdaq is up 40.98 points, or 0.29%, at 14,261.5
  • Russell 2000 was up 20.99 points, or 1.01%, at 2,091.11

Canada Market Closed:

  • The TSX Composite is up 62.79 points, or 0.29%, at 21,952.95
  • TSX 60 is up 3.9 points, or 0.29%, at 1,326.57

Brazil market closed:

  • Bowespa advanced 1,570.92 points, or 1.31%, to 121,570.15

Strength:

The oil market was mixed today:

  • Crude oil fell 0.39 USD / BBL or -0.39% to 99.8800
  • Brent rose 0.02 USD / BBL or 0.02% to 104.7300
  • Natural gas rose 0.095 USD / MMBtu or 1.68% to 5.7370
  • Petrol fell 0.0046 USD / GAL or -0.15% to 3.1461
  • Heating oil rose 0.0308 USD / GAL or 0.92% to 3.3917

The above information was collected on Friday around 12:04 EST

  • Top products beneficiaries: natural gas (1.68%) and canola (1.36%), zinc (3.87%), orange juice (2.86%)
  • Top products damaged: bitumen (-2.34%), aluminum (-1.23%), cocoa (-1.66%) and palm oil (-2.37%)

The above information was collected on Friday around 12:12 EST.

Bonds:

Japan 0.2260% (+ 1.2bp), US 2 2.43% (+ 0.095%), US 10 2.3803% (+ 3.51bps); 2.43% (-0.027%) of US 30, Bunds 0.555% (+ 0.8bp), France 1.026% (+ 4.1bp), Italy 2.099% (+ 5.7bp), Turkey 23.96% (+ 0bp), Greece 2.68% ( + 0.8bp), Portugal 1.389% (+ 1.8bp); Spain 1.484% (+ 4bp) and UK Gilts 1.614% (-1.1bp).

Market Talk – March 31, 2022

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