Asia:

China’s manufacturing inflation was higher than expected in March. The producer price index rose 8.3% from a year earlier, official data showed Monday, above expectations of a 7.9% rise in a Reuters poll. Chinese consumer price inflation also rose higher than expected in March, with the consumer price index rising 1.5% year-on-year. This was above expectations in a Reuters poll of 1.2% growth.

Major Asian stock markets had mixed days today:

  • NIKKEI 225 fell 164.28 points, or -0.61%, to 26,821.52
  • Shanghai fell 84.72 points, or -2.61%, to 3,167.13
  • Hang Seng was down 663.71 points, or -3.03%, at 21,208.30
  • The ASX 200 rose 7.20 points, or 0.10%, to 7,485.20
  • Kospi fell 7.29 points, or -0.27%, to 2,693.10
  • The Sensex fell 482.61 points, or -0.81%, to 58,964.57
  • Nifty 50 decreased by 109.40 points or -0.62% to 17,674.95

Major Asian currency markets had mixed days today:

  • AUDUSD fell 0.00409 or -0.55% to 0.74178
  • NZDUSD fell 0.00186 or -0.27% to 0.68260
  • USDJPY rose 1.232 or 0.99% to 125.521
  • USDCNY rose 0.01766 or 0.28% to 6.38534

Precious Metals:

  • Gold rose 0.27 USD / t oz or 0.01% to 1,946.12
  • Silver rose 0.095 USD / t. oz or 0.38% to 24.845

Some economic news from last night:

China:

CPI (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 0.6% to 0.0%

CPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 0.9% to 1.5%

PPI (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 8.8% to 8.3%

New Zealand:

Electronic card retail sales (MoM) (Mar) increased -7.8% to -1.3%

Electronic card retail sales (YoY) (Mar) fell -1.5% to -0.5%

Today’s economic news

China:

M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Mar) rose 9.2% to 9.7%

New loans (March) increased from 1,230.0B to 3,130.0B

Debt growth (YoY) (March) remains the same at 11.4%

Chinese total social financing (March) increased from 1,190.0B to 4,650.0B

Japan:

Machine Tool Order (YoY) decreased from 31.6% to 30.2%

EUROPE / EMEA:

Ukraine’s economy could shrink by 45.1% this year, while sanctions against Russia are expected to reduce its economic output by 11.2%, economists say. Emerging and developing countries in the region have already been hit hard by the Kovid-19 epidemic, the World Bank report said, adding that “this will be the second contraction in a few years, and twice as large as the epidemic-induced contraction.”

More broadly, regional economies in Europe and Central Asia are now expected to shrink by 4.1% this year – contrary to the 3% growth forecast. The World Bank says that in addition to Russia and Ukraine, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Tajikistan are expected to fall into recession this year. More than 4.5 million people have fled Ukraine as refugees since Russia’s first invasion in late February.

Europe’s major stock markets had a mixed day:

  • The CAC 40 rose 7.59 points, or 0.12%, to 6,555.81
  • The FTSE 100 fell 51.25 points, or -0.67%, to 7,618.31
  • The DAX 30 fell 90.89 points, or -0.64%, to 14,192.78

Europe’s major currency markets had mixed days today:

  • EURUSD rose 0.0006 or 0.06% to 1.08817
  • GBPUSD fell 0.0007 or -0.05% to 1.30235
  • USDCHF decreased 0.00276 or -0.30% to 0.93138

Today’s economic news from Europe:

United Kingdom:

The NIESR monthly GDP tracker remains the same at 1.0%

Construction output (MoM) (February) fell to -0.1% from 1.6%

UK construction output (YoY) (February) fell to 6.1% from 10.0%

GDP (MoM) has increased from 0.8% to 0.1%

GDP (YoY) has increased from 10.5% to 9.5%

The service index fell to 1.8% from 0.8%

Industrial production (YoY) (February) fell to 1.6% from 3.0%

Industrial Production (MoM) (February) fell to -0.6% from 0.7%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (February) fell to -0.4% from 0.9%

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (February) fell to 3.6% from 5.3%

Monthly GDP 3M / 3M changes from 1.3% to 1.0%

Trade balance (February) has gone from -23.90B to -20.59B

Trade balance non-EU (February) from -11.64B to -12.14B

US / Americas:

The White House has issued a warning – the next inflation report will be “remarkably advanced”. The CPI report will be released tomorrow morning, and the White House is preparing for the number for panic. Secretary Saki called the issue “Putin’s price rise” and blamed higher education lessons on the war in Ukraine. As a reminder, the February report reached 7.9%, the highest in 40 years.

The US Department of State continues to suspend student loan payments. Borrowers will be given an additional four months to repay in an effort to help those who were left behind during the epidemic. Educational debt in the United States has exceeded 7 1.7 trillion as this burden affects the overall credit card and household debt. About 10 million borrowers are criminals or defaulters. Therefore, wage garnishing and collection activities will be suspended for an additional four months, but tuition fees will have to be paid in the end.

US market closed:

  • The Dow fell 413.04 points, or -1.19%, to 34,308.08
  • The S&P 500 lost 75.75 points, or -1.69%, to 4,412.53
  • Nasdaq fell 299.04 points, or -2.18%, to 13,411.96
  • Russell 2000 fell 14.24 points, or -0.71%, to 1,980.32

Canada Market Closed:

  • The TSX Composite fell 83.86 points, or -0.38%, to 27,790.49
  • The TSX 60 fell 3.82 points, or -0.29%, to 1,320.55

Brazil market closed:

  • Bowespa fell 1,369.41 points, or -1.16%, to 116,952.85

Strength:

The oil market was mixed today:

  • Crude oil fell 3.97 USD / BBL or -4.04% to 94.280
  • Brent fell 4.5 USD / BBL or -4.38% to 98.28
  • Natural gas rose 0.355 USD / MMBtu or 5.65% to 6.6320
  • Petrol fell 0.1212 USD / GAL or -3.87% to 3.0104
  • Heating oil decreased 0.0385 USD / GAL or -1.16% to 3.2791

The above information was collected on Monday around 14:06 EST

  • Top products beneficiaries: wheat (2.95%) and natural gas (5.65%), orange juice (3.37%), cotton (2.70%)
  • Top products damaged: wood (-7.90%), aluminum (-4.31%), Brent (-4.38%) and crude oil (-4.04%)

The above information was collected around 14:22 EST on Monday.

Bonds:

Japan 0.24% (+ 1.5bp), US 2 2.50% (-0.016%), US 10 2.7858% (+ 8.2bps); 2.82% (+ 0.100%) of US 30, Bunds 0.8200% (+ 11bp), France 1.312% (+ 5.3bp), Italy 2.463% (+ 8.4bp), Turkey 23.94% (-6bp), Greece 2.874% (- 6bp) bp), Portugal 1.723% (+ 8.4bp); Spain 1.781% (+ 7.2bp) and UK Gilts 1.848% (+ 9.6bp).

Market Talk – April 8, 2022

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