Asia:

The World Bank on Wednesday downgraded its economic growth forecast for India and the entire South Asian region, citing supply disruptions due to the Ukraine crisis and the risk of rising inflation. International lender India has cut its growth forecast for the region, the region’s largest economy, from 8.7% in the current fiscal year to 8% in March 2023, and reduced its growth outlook for South Asia, excluding Afghanistan, to 6.6%. In India, household use will be limited by an incomplete recovery of the labor market from epidemics and inflationary pressures, the World Bank has said.

The World Bank has raised its growth forecast for Pakistan, the region’s second-largest economy, from 3.4% to 4.3% for the current year ending in June, leaving next year’s growth outlook unchanged at 4%.

The World Bank has cut its growth forecast for the Maldives from 11% to 7.6% this year, citing its large imports of fossil fuels and a slowdown in tourist arrivals from Russia and Ukraine.

Major Asian stock markets had a green day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 increased by 328.51 points or 1.22% to 27,172.00
  • Shanghai rose 38.82 points, or 1.22%, to 3,225.64
  • Hang Seng rose 143.71 points, or 0.67%, to 21,518.08
  • The ASX 200 rose 44.40 points, or 0.59%, to 7,523.40
  • Kospi rose 0.22 points, or 0.01%, to 2,716.71
  • Sensex closed
  • Nifty 50 closed

Major Asian currency markets had mixed days today:

  • AUDUSD fell 0.0042 or -0.56% to 0.74097
  • NZDUSD fell 0.00217 or -0.32% to 0.67791
  • USDJPY rose 0.452 or 0.36% to 125.925
  • USDCNY rose 0.01693 or 0.27% to 6.39274

Precious Metals:

  • Gold down 7.26 USD / t oz. Or -0.37% to 1,970.46
  • Silver lost 0.282 USD / t. oz or -1.10% to 25.438

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Foreign bond purchases increased from -1,666.1B to -1.4B

Foreign investment in Japanese stocks rose to 1,675.4B from 543.3B

South Korea:

Export Price Index (YoY) (Mar) increased from 20.5% to 22.8%

The Import Price Index (YoY) (Mar) has gone up from 30.7% to 35.5%

The interest rate decision (April) has been from 1.25% to 1.50%

Australia:

MI inflation expectations rose to 5.2% from 4.9%

Employment changes (March) from 77.4K to 17.9K

Complete employment change (March) from 121.9K to 20.5K

The participation rate (March) remains the same at 66.4%

Unemployment rate (March) remains the same at 4.0%

New Zealand:

Business NZ PMI (Mar) rose from 53.6 to 53.8

Singapore:

GDP (QoQ) (Q1) has risen from 2.3% to 0.4%

GDP (YoY) (Q1) fell to 3.4% from 6.1%

Today’s economic news

China:

FDI (March) has increased from 37.90% to 25.60%

EUROPE / EMEA:

The United Kingdom could send thousands of asylum seekers to the East African country of Rwanda, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday, in a bid to break the smuggling network and stem the flow of migrants across the channel. Concerns about immigration were a major factor in the 2016 Brexit vote, and Johnson is under pressure to deliver on his promise to “regain control” of Britain’s borders. But his plan has been sharply criticized by opponents of his Conservative party and charities. Anyone who has come to Britain illegally since January 1 could now move to Rwanda, which would disrupt the business model of the human-trafficking ring, the prime minister said.

The European Central Bank on Thursday confirmed plans to end its Hallmark stimulus project in the third quarter, fearing that high inflation could enter, even as the outlook for the war in Ukraine has become exceptionally uncertain. The ECB has been unwinding support at a glacier pace, much slower than its peers, worried that growth could quickly collapse due to war, sky-high energy prices and the risk of losing access to Russian gas batteries as an already fragile economy.

Europe’s major stock markets had a green day:

  • The CAC 40 rose 47.21 points, or 0.72%, to 6,589.35
  • The FTSE 100 rose 35.58 points, or 0.47%, to 7,616.38
  • The DAX 30 rose 87.41 points, or 0.62%, to 14,163.85

Europe’s major currency markets had mixed days today:

  • EURUSD fell 0.0077 or -0.71% to 1.08170
  • GBPUSD decreased 0.00617 or -0.47% to 1.30578
  • USDCHF rose 0.00903 or 0.97% to 0.94286

Today’s economic news from Europe:

Germany:

Germany Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (April) dropped from 51.93 to 47.75

German WPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 1.7% to 6.9%

German WPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 16.6% to 22.6%

Switzerland:

PPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.4% to 0.8%

PPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 5.8% to 6.1%

United Kingdom:

Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (April) down from 51.5 to 47.4

Italy:

Italy’s Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (April) drops from 42.91 to 42.43

France:

France Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (April) dropped from 46.63 to 44.22

Eurozone:

The deposit facility rate (APR) will remain the same at -0.50%

ECB marginal loan facility remains the same at 0.25%

ECB interest rate decision (April) will remain the same at 0.00%

US / Americas:

Consumer spending peaked in March, according to newly released CPI data. Retail sales in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year. Energy saw a surprisingly large spike after an increase of 8.9% and gas 19.3%. The energy sector is now up 37% compared to last year.

U.S. jobless claims advanced 185,000 in the week ended April 9, up 18,000 from the previous week. Analysts had expected a rate of 172,000. Continuous claims (data collected from the previous week) decreased by 48,000 to 1.475 million.

US market closed:

  • The Dow fell 113.36 points, or -0.33%, to 34,451.23
  • The S&P 500 fell 54 points, or 1.21%, to 4,392.59
  • Nasdaq fell 292.51 points, or -2.14%, to 13,351.08
  • Russell 2000 fell 20.12 points, or -0.09%, to 2,004.98

Canada Market Closed:

  • The TSX Composite rose 17.68 points, or 0.08%, to 21,855.7
  • The TSX 60 advanced 1.59 points, or 0.12%, to 1,320.93

Brazil market closed:

  • Bowespa fell 600.35 points, or -0.51%, to 116,181.61

Strength:

The oil market was a green day today:

  • Crude oil rose 0.97 USD / BBL or 0.93% to 105.220
  • Brent rose 1.13 USD / BBL or 1.04% to 109.91
  • Natural gas rose 0.216 USD / MMBtu or 3.09% to 7.2130
  • Petrol rose 0.0352 USD / GAL or 1.07% to 3.3261
  • Heating oil rose 0.156 USD / GAL or 4.20% to 3.8744

The above information was collected around 13:00 EST on Thursday

  • Top product beneficiaries: heating oil (4.20%) and natural gas (3.09%), palm oil (2.46%), rubber (3.12%)
  • Top products damaged: cotton (-1.25%), bitumen (-3.64%), wheat (-1.16%) and oats (-3.55%)

The above information was collected around 13:07 EST on Thursday.

Bonds:

Japan 0.253% (+ 1.5bp), US 2 2.45% (+ 0.081%), US 10 2.8140% (+ 11.15bps); 2.91% (+ 0.101%) of US 30, Bunds 0.842% (+ 6.7bp), France 1.333% (+ 6.1bp), Italy 2.506% (+ 12.8bp), Turkey 22.74% (+ 0bp), Greece 2.914% ( + 0bp) 6bp), Portugal 1.862% (+ 7.8bp); Spain 1.808% (+ 9.2bp) and UK Gilts 1.891% (+ 8.6bp).

Market Talk – April 13, 2022

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